Friday, April 19, 2013

EXPECTED DA RATE WEF JULY 2013 (01.07.2013) 10 %


on Friday, April 19, 2013

Central Govt yet to to announce DA rate for Jan,2013 but we have already confirmed you that DA rate for Jan,2013 will be 8 % (80%total) and now it is Just a formality to declare it officially.Now we have estimate /expected da rate wef 01.07.2013.We Know it is very early to calculated the DA rate for July 2013 as Government has not yet decided about the DA rate wef 01.01.2013. Though the estimate is based on few assumption but it is not a rough estimate .


DA(dearness allowance) rates are fixed on the basic of All India Consumer Price Index for industrial workers.Base year has been taken as 2001. This new DA rate system is adopted by Central and State Governments  and public sector Under takings from 01.01.2006 with new pay scale as declared by the Pay commission . DA rates are to be announced half yearly basis and applicable from first of January and First of July.

How to calculate Dearness Allowance from the year 2006:

It is very simple ,suppose if you want to calculate Dearness Allowance with effect from Jan-13, get the average of monthly All India Consumer Price Index for industrial workers with the base year 2001=100 for the preceding 12 months and apply the same in the following formula

Formula

Dearness Allowance = (Avg of AICPI for the past 12 months - 115.76^)*100/115.76^

(ignore fractions)

^ Here 115.76 means average of price index from Jan 2005 to Dec 2005.

Avg of AICPI for the past 12 months =Total of index from July,2012 to June ,2013 divided by 12(months)

So to calculate Estimated DA rate wef July,2013 (01.07.2013), we need Price index average from July, 2012 to June,2013.

As per Labour Bureau, Department Statistics, Government of India website index for July 2012 to February ,2013 has already been declared .

However Price Index from March ,2013 to June,2013 is yet to be declared, 

So to estimate the DA rates wef July ,2013 we have estimated the Price Index from March,2013 to June ,2013 . We will revise the Calculation as and when these months actual figures will be available.
We have calculated 4 possible equation/ Estimates ,which is shown in the picture below.

Case-1
In First case we have added one point after two month in price index starting from March,2013 to June 2013. Though we think price index will be higher .

On the Basis of The assumption the total of price index from July 2012 to June 2013 will be 2637 and Avg for Last 12 months will be 219.75.The calculation for dearness allowance (DA) wef July ,2013 is given as under.

Dearness allowance (01.07.2013)=(219.75-115.76)*100/115.76= 89.83%(ignore fraction)=89%

The above calculation assures us  us that at least DA will be declared at 89% wef 01.07.2013  that is a Increase of  9  % from 80 % (wef 01.01.2013).

If  Sum of price index of Last twelve months remains with 2626-2639 then DA rate will remain 89% wef 01.07.2013

Case-2


In second case we have added one point after each month in price index starting from March,2013 to June 2013. This may be the most likely situation as RBI has also estimated the inflation rate at lower rates.

On the Basis of The assumption the total of price index from July 2012 to June 2013 will be 2641 and Avg for Last 12 months will be 220.08.The calculation for dearness allowance (DA) wef July ,2013 is given as under.

Dearness allowance(01.07.2013)=(220.08-115.76)*100/115.76=90.12%(ignore fraction)=90 %

The above calculation assures us  us that at least DA will be declared at 90% wef 01.07.2013  that is a Increase of  10 % from 80 % (wef 01.01.2013).

Further If  Sum of price index of Last twelve months remains with 2640-2653 then DA rate will remain 90% wef 01.07.2013

Case-3


In third case we have added two point after two month in price index starting from March,2013 to June 2013. 

On the Basis of The assumption the total of price index from July 2012 to June 2013 will be 2643 and Avg for Last 12 months will be 220.25.The calculation for dearness allowance (DA) wef July ,2013 is given as under.

Dearness allowance (01.07.2013)=(220.25-115.76)*100/115.76= 90.26%(ignore fraction)=90 %

The above calculation assures us  us that at least DA will be declared at 90% wef 01.07.2013  that is a Increase of  10 % from 80 % (wef 01.01.2013).

Further If  Sum of price index of Last twelve months remains with 2640-2653 then DA rate will remain 90% wef 01.07.2013

Case-4


In Fourth case we have added two point  every month in price index starting from March,2013 to June 2013.

On the Basis of The assumption the total of price index from July 2012 to June 2013 will be 2651 and Avg for Last 12 months will be 220.91.The calculation for dearness allowance (DA) wef July ,2013 is given as under.

Dearness allowance (01.07.2013)=(220.92-115.76)*100/115.76= 90.84%(ignore fraction)=90 %

The above calculation assures us  us that at least DA will be declared at 90% wef 01.07.2013  that is a Increase of  10  % from  80 % (wef 01.01.2013).

Further If  Sum of price index of Last twelve months remains with 2640-2653 then DA rate will remain 90% wef 01.07.2013

Conclusion :
From the above calculation most likely case will be case-2 and Case-3 .Case -1 can be ruled out due to low estimated and case-4 can be rejected due to higher projection.So balance left is  case 2 and three i.e 90 % 

Keeping in View all circumstances and economic situation we expect sum total of price index of 7/2012 to 6/2013 in between range of 2640-53 (Case-2,3,4) and Expected DA wef 01.07.2013 to 90%(10% Increase)

Expected DA with effect from July ,2013 to be 90% (01.07.2013) 

Please Comment about our above calculation and Record your estimated Price Index from 7/2012 to 6/2013 or sum total of price index 7/2012 to 06/2013 and DA rate wef 7/2013.

Tags: expected da from July,2013, Dearness allowance wef 01.07.2013, July 2013 da rate tentative da rate from july,2013 , new da installment , new rate of da , 10 % increase in da from  July 2013, da 7/2013, da 7/2013, Dearness allowance for Central govt employees ,July 2013(01.07.13)

Da wef 01.01.2013 has been declared at 80 % (updated 19.04.2013)

Updated :31.03.2013

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  1. we also think 89% will be right choice.total 2626-2639

    ReplyDelete
  2. it is right expectation i,e minimum 9% DA wef july 2013. MVS

    ReplyDelete
  3. it is right calculation and expectation as after august 2013, any time election will be declared by central govt.They will definatelt take care of their employee!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete