Monday, September 24, 2012

EXPECTED DA RATE INCREASE 8-9% WEF JANUARY 2013


on Monday, September 24, 2012

We have calculated the expected DA(dearness allowance ) wef 01.01.2013 (January,2013) and this is not a pure guess work  but based on facts and we have also explained these facts and circumstances that How we have estimated the DA Rate wef January ,2013(01.01.2013) ?.

Please Read Confirmed Calculation of DA wef 01.01.2013 from here(updated 01.01.2013)

We Know it is very early to calculated the DA rate for January 2013 as Government has not yet decided about the DA rate wef 01.07.2012. Earlier we have also informed you in May 2012 that Da Rate wef 01.07.2012 will be 72 % i.e 7 % Increase from old DA Rate of 65 % .

Today(24.09.2012) Cabinet  will  discuss DA rate wef 01.07.2012 and will announce DA 72 %.

DA for 01.01.2012 has already been declared at 65 %.

DA(dearness allowance) rates are fixed on the basic of All India Consumer Price Index for industrial workers.Base year has been taken as 2001. This new DA rate system is adopted by Central and State Governments  and public sector Under takings from 01.01.2006 with new pay scale as declared by the Pay commission . DA rates are to be announced half yearly basis and applicable from first of January and First of July.

How to calculate Dearness Allowance from the year 2006:

It is very simple ,suppose if you want to calculate Dearness Allowance with effect from Jan-13, get the average of monthly All India Consumer Price Index for industrial workers with the base year 2001=100 for the preceding 12 months and apply the same in the following formula

Formula

Dearness Allowance = (Avg of AICPI for the past 12 months - 115.76^)*100/115.76^

(ignore fractions)

^ Here 115.76 means average of price index from Jan 2005 to Dec 2005.

So to calculate Estimated DA rate wef January,2013 (01.01.2013), we need Price index average from January, 2012 to December,2012.

As per Labour Bureau, Department Statistics, Government of India website index for January 2012 to September ,2012 has already been declared .

However Price Index from October ,2012 to December,2012 is yet to be declared,In fact will be declared in future . 

So to estimate the DA rates wef January ,2013 we have estimated the Price Index from October,2012 to December ,2012 . We will revise the Calculation as and when these months actual figures will be available.

Please Read Confirmed Calculation of DA wef 01.01.2013 from here(updated 01.01.2013)

We have calculated 4 possible equation/ Estimates ,which is shown in the picture below.


Case-1
In First case we have added one each month in price index starting from October,2012 to December 2012. Though we think price index will be higher .

On the Basis of The assumption the total of price index from January 2012 to December 2012 will be 2509 and Avg for Last 12 months will be 209.58.The calculation for dearness allowance (DA) wef January ,2013 is given as under.

Dearness allowance (01.01.2013)=(209.08-115.76)*100/115.76= 80.62%(ignore fraction)=80 %

The above calculation assures us  us that at least DA will be declared at 80% wef 01.01.2013  that is a Increase of  8  % from 72 % (wef 01.07.2012).

Further If  Sum of price index of Last twelve months remains with 2500-2514 then DA rate will remain 80% wef 01.01.2013

Case-2

In Second case we have added two each month in price index starting from October,2012 to December 2012. Though we think price index will be on higher side  .

On the Basis of The assumption the total of price index from January 2012 to December 2012 will be 2515 and Avg for Last 12 months will be 209.58 .The calculation for dearness allowance (DA) wef January ,2013 is given as under.

Dearness allowance (01.01.2013)=(209.58-115.76)*100/115.76= 81.05%(ignore fraction)=81 %

The above calculation assures us that  DA will be declared at 81% wef 01.01.2013  that is a Increase of 9  % from 72 % wef (01.07.2012)

Further If  Sum of price index of Last twelve months remains with 2515-2528 then DA rate will remain 81% wef 01.01.2013


Case-3

In third case we have added three each month in price index in September, 2012 and December,2012 .
Though we expect higher price index in October 2012 due to price increase effect of Diesel and their cascading effects but as the answer of DA remains same for a range of figures,so to ease in understanding we have not done so. 

On the Basis of The assumption the total of price index from January 2012 to December 2012 will be 2521 and Avg for Last 12 months will be 210.08 .The calculation for dearness allowance (DA) wef January ,2013 is given as under.

Dearness allowance (01.01.2013)=(210.08-115.76)*100/115.76= 81.48%(ignore fraction)=81 %

The above calculation assures us  us that DA will be declared at 81% wef 01.01.2013  that is a Increase of  09 % from 72 % (wef 01.07.2012)

Further If  Sum of price index of Last twelve months remains with 2529-2542 then DA rate will remain 82% wef 01.01.2013


Case-4

In Forth case we have added four each month in price index starting from September,2012 to December 2012. Though we think price index will be lesser that this.

On the Basis of The assumption the total of price index from January 2012 to December 2012 will be 2527 and Avg for Last 12 months will be 210.58 .The calculation for dearness allowance (DA) wef January ,2013 is given as under.

Dearness allowance (01.01.2013)=(211.58-115.76)*100/115.76=81.91%(ignore fraction)=81%

The above calculation assures us that  DA will be declared at 81% wef 01.01.2013  that is a Increase of  9  % from 72 % (wef 01.07.2012)

Further If  Sum of price index of Last twelve months remains with 2543-2555 then DA rate will remain 83 % wef 01.01.2013

Conclusion :Expected DA with effect from January ,2013 to be 81% (01.01.2013) 

From the above calculation most likely case will be case-2 and Case-3 .Case -1 can be ruled out due to low estimated and case-4 can be rejected due to higher projection.So balance left is 81 % and 82 %.

Keeping in View all circumstances and economic situation we expect sum total of price index of 1/2012 to 12/2012 in between range of 2515-2528 (Case-2) and Expected DA wef 01.01.2013 to 81%(09% Increase)

Please Comment about our above calculation and Record your estimated Price Index from 8/2012 to 12/2012 or sum total of price index 1/2012 to 12/2012 and DA rate wef 1/2013.

Tags: expected da from January,2013, Dearness allowance wef 01.01.2013, January 2013 da rate , tentative da rate from january,2013 , new da installment , new rate of da , 10% increase in da from  January 2012, da 0/2013, da 1/2012, Dearness allowance for Central govt employees ,January 2013(01.01.13)

Please Read Confirmed Calculation of DA wef 01.01.2013 from here(updated 01.01.2013)

Updated :03.11.2012

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  1. Good work , I will go by case-3 ,10% increase and total 12 month in range of 2529-42

    ReplyDelete
  2. Good calculation. Case 3 appears to be most appropriate - Subhash Sehgal

    ReplyDelete
  3. What about IDA Rates? How are they calculated on the basis of prevailing DA Rates?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Yes I have also calculated and found that with the current trend the expected hike in DA wef Jan 13 may be from 9 % or 10% ; even if the index do not rise any further, for August it was 214, then also the hike would be 8 %.

    But better to have low inflation then higher hike in DA.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We also wish that inflation should be lower and this may be the case as Rupee has come stronger against dollar and crude is coming down ,many other reforms may help Indian economy to down the Inflation rates .

      No body wants Hiher inflation and Higher DA rates ,Never ....

      Delete
  5. in my openion case 3 is right

    ReplyDelete
  6. kam se kam 10%

    ReplyDelete
  7. 50%MERGE EPPO? 8% da hike erukkum

    ReplyDelete
  8. we may expect increase @ 9%

    ReplyDelete
  9. good calculations

    ReplyDelete
  10. We expect 10 percent w.e.f. January 2013

    ReplyDelete
  11. DA W E F 1-1-2013 IS 8% 72+8=80% KULDIP SINGH BHAKNA 0183-2257420-R & 098152-68496-M

    ReplyDelete
  12. woo 10to 12 percent will increase because petrol increase rs.4 in 15 days.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Can u plz reply me that DA has really increasing for Jan 2013 or not.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. sarkar kay ghar der hai andher nahin. wait,...wait & wait

      Delete
  14. declarion of Da is waiting with very eagerly hower not declared till date

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sabar Ka Fal Mitha Hota hai.

      Further ,8% rate as calculated is final ,Just formality of declaration is pending

      Delete